Everton vs Crystal Palace at Goodison Park on Oct 5, 2025, promises a tightly‑contested Premier League test as both sides hunt crucial points. The Toffees, haunted by a four‑game winless streak, host an Eagles side riding a four‑match winning run and boasting one of the league’s stingiest defenses.
Match Overview
When Everton Football Club opened their doors to Crystal Palace Football Club at 14:00, the stadium held roughly 39,500 fans, all eyes on a fixture that could reshape the lower‑mid‑table scramble. The encounter is part of Matchday 20 of the 2025‑26 Premier League seasonGoodison Park, and the points at stake are worth more than the usual bragging rights.
Form and Stakes
Everton sit 15th with 27 points, three shy of Palace’s 30‑point tally in 12th place. In their last six league outings, the Toffees have recorded three wins, two draws and a loss – a mixed bag that reflects a squad still searching for consistency. Conversely, Palace have notched four victories in the same span, including a memorable 2‑1 triumph over Liverpool that underscored their growing tactical discipline.
The contrast in recent form feeds into the betting markets. Computer‑driven models assign Everton a 37.8 % chance of winning, Palace 35.7 %, and a draw 26.5 %. Those figures illustrate how small the margin truly is and why pundits keep the match locked at a probable 1‑1 scoreline.
Key Absences and Tactical Shifts
David Moyes, Everton’s manager, arrived at the pre‑match press conference with a stripped‑down XI. Mid‑fielder Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall missed the trip after serving a suspension for his fifth yellow card of the campaign. The midfielder’s absence forced Moyes to reshuffle his central trio, likely promoting James Tarkowski to a deeper‑lying role.
Defensive depth is also thin. Centre‑back Jarrad Branthwaite remains sidelined with a lingering hamstring issue, while fellow defender Merlin Rohl is out after ankle surgery. Those two injuries have left Moyes with fewer experienced options at the back.
On the Palace side, manager Roy Hodgson (still at the helm in this scenario) contended with a trio of fitness doubts. Fresh‑legged centre‑back Cheick Doucoure, winger Chadi Riad, and full‑back Caleb Kporha were all ruled out by injury. Will Hughes endured a late‑stage knock in training, leaving his starting status uncertain until the final lineup was announced.
Betting Markets and Predictions
The betting consensus leans heavily toward both sides finding the net, while under 2.5 goals remains the favorite total. Bookmakers offer 1‑1 draws at odds near 6.00, and Jean‑Philippe Mateta is singled out as a potential scorer at 200 /1. Meanwhile, the market for a booking is highlighted for midfielder Timothy Iroegbunam, who enjoys odds of 187 /1, reflecting expectations of a hard‑charging midfield duel.
Corner kick forecasts sit at 9‑11 across the 90 minutes, and analysts predict more than 2.5 shots on target for each team individually, but fewer than 4.5 total shots on target for the game. Those numbers line up with historical data: three of the last five meetings between the clubs have produced under 2.5 goals, a trend that fuels the low‑scoring narrative.
Expert and Model Analysis
Former Premier League scout Mike Phelan highlighted Palace’s defensive cohesion, noting that conceding just three goals in six games equals the joint‑best record in the league at this stage. "They’re organized, they press in zones, and they’re uncomfortable facing quick transitions," Phelan told a post‑match podcast.
Moyes, on the other hand, emphasized his side’s attacking intent. "We’ve got the talent to break forward, but we need to be disciplined defensively. The kids know the occasion," he said, referring to the heavy historical weight of Palace’s 11‑year winless run at Goodison.
Statistical models from the betting firm StatsEdge suggest a 61 % probability that at least one goal will be scored in the second half, a nuance that could sway in‑play wagers as the night progresses.
Potential Impact and What Comes Next
If Everton manage a win, they swing from 15th to 13th, narrowing the gap to the safety zone and potentially reshaping the relegation battle. A draw would keep their winless streak at home alive but secure a point that could prove vital in the final stretch.
For Palace, an away victory would end a decade‑long drought at Goodison, cement their reputation as a disciplined side capable of grinding out points on the road. Such a result could also push them into the top ten, increasing their chances of securing a European berth.
Both managers will likely adjust tactics after halftime based on the flow of the game. Expect Moyes to bring on an extra striker if the Toffees trail, while Hodgson may switch to a more compact 4‑5‑1 formation to preserve any lead.
Historical Context
The last time Palace won at Goodison was back in March 2014, a 2‑0 victory that ended a hostile period for the Eagles in Merseyside. Since then, Everton have collected nine points from ten visits, underlining the home side’s advantage.
Nevertheless, the modern Premier League has shown that historical trends can be broken quickly. Liverpool’s shock loss to Palace in 2023 and Sheffield United’s recent rise from the bottom half illustrate that form and confidence can outweigh legacy stats.
Key Facts
- Venue: Goodison Park, Liverpool
- Date & Time: 5 October 2025, 14:00 BST
- League Position: Everton 15th (27 pts), Palace 12th (30 pts)
- Recent Form: Everton W‑D‑D‑L, Palace W‑W‑W‑W
- Predicted Scoreline: 1‑1 draw (under 2.5 goals)
Frequently Asked Questions
How could this match affect Everton’s relegation battle?
A win would lift Everton to 13th place, reducing the points gap to the safety zone to four. Even a draw keeps them within striking distance, while a loss could see them slip into the bottom‑four, making the next few fixtures decisive for survival.
What ticket price range can fans expect for this game?
General admission seats typically start around £35, with premium stand tickets reaching £70‑£85. A limited number of family packages are also offered at £120 for two adults and two children, providing a modest discount on standard rates.
Will the match be broadcast live in the UK?
Yes. Sky Sports has secured the domestic rights and will air the fixture on its main channel, with a simultaneous stream available on the Sky Go app for subscribers.
Which player is most likely to score for Palace?
Analysts peg forward Jean‑Philippe Mateta as the most probable scorer, given his recent goal‑scoring form and the odds of 200 /1 reflecting his status as a dark‑horse favorite.
What does the historical head‑to‑head record suggest about the likely outcome?
In the last five meetings, three have produced under 2.5 goals, supporting the consensus for a low‑scoring affair. However, Palace have won only once at Goodison since 2014, indicating Everton still hold a psychological edge.